RIL shares outperform Sensex after 7 years, rally may continue in 2016

Reliance Industries (RIL) shares outpaced BSE Sensex for the first time after seven years. The share price of the country’s largest private sector company surged 13.63 per cent in 2015 against 5.03 per cent fall registered by the benchmark index in the year gone by. In 2014, RIL shares fell 0.41 per cent against 29.89 per cent gain posted by Sensex.

For the year 2016, market experts believe RIL can once again beat benchmark indices and can surge upto 28 per cent in the next 12 months. However, the 30-share index can jump 20 per cent this year.

Last year, the company posted the highest gross refining margin (GRM) in last seven years at $10.6 a barrel for the quarter ended September 2015 against $10.4 a barrel in the preceding quarter. According to SMC Investments and Advisors, GRM of the company was ahead of market estimates of $8.3 a barrel. GRM in the year-ago period was $8.3 a barrel. RIL’s premium over Singapore complex margins widened to $4.3 per barrel during the quarter ended September 30, 2015, the highest level since early 2009.

reliance industries shares

GRM is the difference between the total value of petroleum products coming out of an oil refinery (output) and the price of the raw material, (input) which is crude oil. The margins are calculated on a per-barrel basis.

The company continues to build towards the roll-out of Jio’s services, with the imminent launch of a range of 4G smartphones under the ‘Lyf’ brand aimed at helping build an ecosystem of handsets compatible with the full range of Jio’s service. Of late, the company had announced the launch of 4G service for its employees under the Jio brand name. Mukesh Ambani will begin the commercial roll out of the telecom venture Reliance Jio in the coming weeks.

During the year, RIL and RCom also filed intimation with the DoT for sharing of 800 MHz spectrum in seven cities. Deutsche Bank in a research report in December said, “Over FY15-18e, we expect RIL’s EBITDA ex-telecom to rise by a CAGR of 16 per cent as against anaemic EBITDA growth at a 4 per cent CAGR over FY10-15.”

During July-Sept 2015, Reliance Retail expanded its reach with a net addition of 110 stores in Q2FY16 and number of stores at 2,857 across 250 cities. The company has strong presence in South and West and robust sales have seen in private lables.

SMC Investments and Advisors in a research note said, “The company maintained a rapid pace of construction activity during the quarter ended September 2015. Its world-scale petcoke gasification facility and ethylene cracker complex remains on track for its planned 2016 start-up. In digital services, it has substantially completed the network roll-out across the country and initiated the process of beta testing of network and platforms, thus we expect the stock to see a price target of Rs 1,289 in 8 to 10 months.”

On January 1, shares of Reliance Industries were trading 0.53 per cent up at Rs 1,018. IndiaNivesh Securities is also bullish on RIL and believes RIL shares can hit Rs 1,300 in 2016.

RIL reported return on equity (ROE) of 11.3 per cent in FY15, down 50 bps YoY. According to market experts, the key reason for decline in ROE was increase of Rs 75,000 crore in capital work in progress(CWIP) under the ongoing capex programme that pulled down asset turnover sharply.

IndiaNivesh in a note said, “We expect ROE to improve from FY17, when its large projects will commence. Further retail business is continuously progressing well and telecom business is likely to contribute in overall revenue from FY17.”

LIVE: Sensex falls over 100 points in a choppy trade, Nifty50 below 7,770; Suven Life Sciences up over 2%

11.43 am: Sensex was trading 104.15 points down at 25,519.20. NSE Nifty was trading 25.10 points down at 7,766.20. Wipro shares were down 0.53 per cent at Rs 555.00 after India’s third-largest software firm reshuffled its top management, appointing Abid Ali Neemuchwala as the new chief executive in place of T K Kurien, who has been elevated as executive vice chairman.

11.23 am: MBL Infrastructures shares were trading 1.53 per cent down at Rs 219.50 even after it bagged two projects aggregating to Rs 609.12 crore. Sensex was down 59.23 points at 25,564.12. NSE Nifty was down 21.65 points at 7,769.65.

10.51 am: MOIL shares were trading 1.24 per cent up at Rs 216 after it slashed prices of various grades of manganese ore by up to 10 per cent for the January-March quarter. Sensex was trading 18.98 points down at 25,604.37.

10.24 am: Suven Life Sciences shares were trading 2.55 per cent up at Rs 267.15 after the company announced grant of three product Patents in Canada, ARIPO and South Korea corresponding to the New Chemical Entities (NCEs) for the treatment of disorders associated with Neurodegenerative diseases and these Patents are valid through 2030. Sensex was trading 74.74 points up at 25,698.09. NSE Nifty was gained 26 points at 7,817.30.

10.07 am: The Indian rupee recovered from a two-week low by rising 15 paise to 66.46 against the dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange in early trade on fresh selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. Sensex was trading 34.96 points up at 25,658.31. NSE Nifty was trading 9.65 points up at 7,800.95.

9.54 am: Welspun Corp was trading 2.77 per cent down at Rs 106.95 after the company on Monday said it has received tax demand notice of Rs 100 crore in respect of a manufacturing unit in Anjar, Gujarat. Sensex was trading 30.75 points down at 25,592.60. Nifty was trading 5.15 points down at 7,786.15.

9.38 am: Videocon Industries was trading 0.87 per cent up at Rs 121.80 after it said that it has restructured its $194.4 million foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) by repaying half the amount in cash and redeeming the rest in new five-year bonds at lower cost. Sensex gave up initial gains of 100 points and was trading 20.64 points up at 25,643.99. Nifty was trading 14.10 points up at 7,805.40.

BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty, stock market today, dalal street,

9.23 am: SITI Cable Network Ltd was trading 12.50 per cent up at Rs 41.40 after the Reserve Bank allowed foreign investors to buy up to 49 per cent stake in SITI Cable Network. Sensex was trading 97.76 points up at 25,721.11. Nifty50 was trading 36.75 points up at 7,828.05.

9.15 am: The BSE Sensex opened over 100 points up on Tuesday on value-buying in select blue-chips amid a firming trend at other Asian bourses. Besides, covering-up of short positions by speculators supported the recovery. Sensex was trading 113.12 points up at 25,736.47. Nifty50 was trading 34.90 points up at 7,826.20.

Among other Asian markets, Shanghai Composite index was up 0.33 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.41 per cent in early trade today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was also trading a shade higher.

8.40 am: The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are likely to rebound open in positive terrain on Tuesday tracking SGX Nifty and mixed global markets.

At 7.50 am, SGX Nifty was up 27.00 points, or 0.34 per cent, at 7,829.00

After Monday’s bloodbath, wherein BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty fell over 2 per cent on Monday amid concerns over slowdown in China and escalating tension in the Middle East, the stocks markets are expected to make some recovery. The BSE Sensex plunged by 537.55 points to crack below the 26,000-mark and NSE Nifty fell below the 7,800-mark by losing 171.90 points or 2.16 per cent to 7,791.30 on Monday.

Asian share markets were on the ropes for a second straight session on Tuesday as investors waited anxiously to see if Beijing can head off the latest selling stampede in Chinese stocks.

At 7:56 am, Hang Seng traded 5.23 points or 0.02 per cent down, at 21321.89, while Nikkei traded 48.21 points or 0.26 per cent up at 18,499.19.

US stocks began 2016 sharply lower on Monday, with the Dow marking its worst start to a year since 2008, after weak Chinese economic data fanned fears of a global slowdown. Indexes partly recovered late in the session, following a turnaround in oil prices that caused energy shares to cut losses.

At its low for the day, the Dow was down 467 points and was headed for its worst first-day percentage drop since 1932.

Stocks of Wipro will be in focus on Tuesday as India’s third-largest software firm on Monday reshuffled its top management, appointing Abid Ali Neemuchwala as the new chief executive in place of T K Kurien,
who has been elevated as executive vice chairman.

Videocon Industries will also be in limelight as the diversified industrial house has restructured its $194.4 million foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) by repaying half the amount in cash and redeeming the rest in new five-year bonds at lower cost.